AC soccer plays 2012

[achandicap]

I've posted soccer plays in other forums before, but thought I'd take a shot at the RX for 2012 with a ratings system I've been tinkering with for the last couple of years. No guarantee this will work, but I've refined it enough that I think the plays have some strength.

After working as many as eight leagues, I've narrowed it down to five that I like: England, Italy, Brazil, Colombia and Ireland. I'll also post Champions and Europa league plays, and some Copa Libertadores and Sudamerica selections. Plays are rated 1 to 5, and all odds are from 5Dimes.

I was going to start after the new year, but this play came up strong. I also see another poster here likes the same side for the same reason, so I'm kind of bandwagon jumping. But it hopefully will be a good way to start.

Newcastle +1 +107/Liverpool, 3 units
With Luis Suarez suspended and Steven Gerrard probably coming off the bench, Liverpool will find scoring difficult. Andy Carroll will probably be given the center forward role, and he's only scored twice in 16 league matches (3 in 19 including Carling Cup). Meanwhile, Newcastle has lost only two matches on the road, to Man City and Norwich. The Norwich loss is troubling, as is the last home loss to West Brom. But if Newcastle really wants to keep Europa hopes alive, they need points here against a team having trouble on offense.

 

[achandicap]

Saturday

Aston Villa +1.5 +107/Chelsea, 3 units

 

[achandicap]

Monday

Norwich +.5 -128/Queens Park, 1 unit

Both teams have defensive line issues, so I look for an open, entertaining match. Both teams have problems winning (only nine wins combined in 38 matches), but Norwich is proving they can pick up points on the road (4 draws, including at Everton and Liverpool) and that's all they need here to win the bet. I actually have them as the better team, but winning on the road isn't something they've shown they can do.

Record: 1-1, +0.21

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY

Bolton +1 +102/Everton, 3 units

Not real thrilled with playing Bolton on the road, but there's some things that go against Everton. They only have two days rest (vs. three for Bolton), some long-term lingering injuries to Fellaini and Coleman, and haven't scored more than one goal since beating Bolton on the road November 26. Bolton must look at this match as a must to get at least one point, as their next three Premier League matches are against Man U, Liverpool and Arsenal. Everton is the easiest match they have this month. They might catch Everton resting a few players and, with a spirited performance, grab the draw.

Record: 2-1, +1.21

 

[JohnMolson]

nice hit..bolton outright

 

[achandicap]

Four small plays in the FA Cup. All one unit.

Fleetwood Town +.5 -102/Blackpool
MK Dons PK -111/Queens Park Rangers
Swindon PK +117/Wigan
Cardiff +.5 +107/West Brom

All picked teams are having successful campaigns, playing against teams in higher leagues. All except Cardiff are at home. I like teams that are successful, regardless of class. They know how to win, something their opponent isn't accustom to. Asking a non-winning team to win on the road, even against a supposedly inferior team, is not easy.

Record: 3-1, +4.27

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY

Italy
Catania +.25 -113/Bologna, 2 units
Novara PK +119/Fiorentina, 2 units

Waiting on Atalanta to come back on the spread. Expecting +.75 -118, which was there last night.

Record: 4-3, +3.42

 

[achandicap]

Adding

Atalanta +.75 -116/Milan, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

Bad day in Italy over the weekend, but I think I have a bounce-back. Even though my numbers say this is a no-play, this is worth a shot.

Tottenham -1 -102/Everton, 1 unit

This is a makeup game from the beginning of the year, and Tottenham can move within a one-game striking distance of the Manchester clubs. There is no way they look past this game, even though it's a special mid-week encounter. My concern is if they score the second goal.

Record: 4-6, -3.16

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Sunderland +1.5 -130/Chelsea, 2 units
Norwich +.5/West Brom, 2 units

ITALY
Catania PK +133/Roma, 1 unit

Sunderland: Chelsea is missing Kalou and Drogba (African Cup), and has other injuries. Sunderland has won five of seven wwith O'Neill. Granted, this is at Chelsea, but +1.5 is too much to pass up.

Norwich: I actually have Norwich favored in this match, so getting the half goal is nice. Norwich has gained points in six of their 10 away matches, while West Brom has won or tied in only four of their 10 home matches. This screams of at least a draw, especially since West Brom has a habit of giving up late goals.

Catania: Roma hasn't won at Catania since 2007, and as long as Maxi Lopex (3 goals in just 870 minutes) is still with Catania, I like their chances.

Record: 5-6, -2.16

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Blackburn +1 -112/Everton, 4 units
Aston Villa PK +108/Wolves, 3 units
Norwich +1 -119/Chelsea, 1 unit
Wigan +.5/Queens Park, 1 unit

AFRICAN CUP OF NATIONS (starts Saturday)
(To win, 1 unit each)
Senegal +670
Morocco +925

ENGLAND
Blackburn has settled into the relegation battle, and knows it could use a point on the road. Everton hasn't shown the type of style to batter an opponent, and has lost a number of matches at home already this season. Wolves are still stunned by dropping out of the FA Cup in mid-week to Birmingham. Even though they played essentially a B team in Cup play, the loss will resonate. Chelsea is missing a number of players due to the African Cup of Nations, and Norwich is a tough team at home. Wigan sees this as the best opportunity to gain points in its current schedule and should give a solid performance, even on the road.

In Africa, Senegal has a fairly easy group with Libya, Zambia and host Equitorial Guinea. Winning the group will also put them on the other side of the knockout bracket from favorite Ivory Coast. Morocco plays in a tough group with Gabon and Tunisia, but looks to be on an upswing lately. Even so, finishing second in their group isn't bad, again putting them on the opposite side of the bracket from Ivory Coast, and letting another nation do the dirty work against an underachieving favorite.

Record: 7-6, +1.84

 

[achandicap]

TUESDAY

Copa Libertadores
El Nacional (Ecu) -.5 +115/Libertad (Para), 1 unit
First match for both teams. Libertad is probably the better team, but El Nacional plays in Quito, at 9,200 feet, while Libertad is a sea-level team. The travel and adjustment in altitude isn't the greatest way to start the season. I can see Libertad being happy just with scoring a goal in the first leg of this match, then coming back to Paraguay to simply hammer El Nacional.

I also like Arsenal (Arg) over Sport Huancayo (Peru), but not at -1.5 -135. If the line gets any closer to plus odds I might try a unit, but I doubt it goes there.

Update on Saturday: Wigan was -116.

Record: 10-7, +8.92

 

[rolltide]

nice weekend! blackburn draw was a miracle...now they've made me believe they will stay up for sure!...that last 15' was divine intervention if I've ever seen it

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY

ITALY
Cagliari +1.5 -118/Milan, 2 units
Chievo PK +107/Lazio, 2 units

Milan and Lazio played each other Thursday in the Coppa Italia, and each put out fairly strong lineups in what turned out to be a tough match. We'll see a few lesser players in these matchups, and I'm hoping at least one of them slips up.

Record: 11-9, +8.07 (including African Cup losses)

 

[achandicap]

TUESDAY
Wolves +.5 +123/Liverpool, 2 units
Liverpool is coming off two huge matches in the Carling Cup and FA Cups, while Wolves hasn't played since January 21 and had some time to nurse injuries and morale. At home, they come out needing points. Liverpool, meanwhile, is finishing a four match in 10 day stretch, with matches against Tottenham and Man United up next. This is the chance to rest some regulars,, and they probably wouldn't be upset at leaving Wolves with just a point.

Record: 11-11, +3.71

 

[achandicap]

TUESDAY
COPA LIBERTADORES
Libertad (Para) -1.5 -102/El Nacional (Ecu), 3 units
Sport Huancayo (Peru) -.5 +115/Arsenal (Arg), 1 unit

Like both home teams needing to score goals. Libertad is down 1-0 against what should be far the inferior team. They had to play at 9200 feet in Ecuador in the first leg. Now they come down to sea level, and Libertad should have their legs under them. Arsenal is already up 3-0 in their matchup, so winning isn't necessary at all. They can walk out a 2-0 loser and still feel comfortable. The only concern I have is whether Sport comes to play since their league season doesn't begin for another two-plus weeks.

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY

ENGLAND
Queens Park +.5+108/Aston Villa, 3 units
Bolton +.5 +120/Arsenal, 1 unit
Norwich +.5 +110/Sunderland, 1 unit

ITALY
Atalanta -.5 +145/Genoa, 1 unit

Record: 12-13, +3.71

 

[achandicap]

THURSDAY
Penarol (URU) PK +100/Caracas (VEN), 1 unit

Penarol doesn't need this win, already up 4-0 from the first leg in Uruguay. But Caracas consistently underachieves in international competition (3-3-8, 13 GF-23 GA in 2010 and 2011), and lost their opener in national competition. Even at home, Caracas may fold up shop here and concentrate on league play. The question is whether Penarol cares enough to score a goal and grab the win.

Record: 14-14, +7.12

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY

ENGLAND
Blackburn +1.5 +104/Arsenal, 3 units
Queens Park Rangers-.5 -111/Wolves, 1 unit
Fulham +1.5 +103/Manchester City, 1 unit

Arsenal is a poor choice at -1.5 with their lack of goal-scoring of late. Since a 4-0 defeat of Wigan December 3, Arsenal has scored more than one goal only three times--twice against defensive hole Aston Villa and scoring twice in a 3-2 loss at Swansea. Meanwhile, Blackburn--despite being 17th in the standings--is sixth in goals scored. Arsenal will need three goals to beat this spread, and the chances of that happening are pretty slim.

Have to continue the run with QPR and against Wolves. QPR made some nice deals at the transfer deadline and got a nice 2-2 draw on the road at Aston Villa Wednesday. Meanwhile, Wolves have not won a match since December 4 (five draws, six losses) and since the 1-0 loss to Birmingham knocking them out of the FA Cup they've looked lifeless.

City has looked a little off since Yaya Toure went south for the African Cup of Nations. Again, goal-scoring has been a problem. Since Christmas they are only 3-3-4 and were knocked out of the Carling Cup by Liverpool and the FA Cup by Manchester United. Fulham has just enough firepower and pluckiness to stay within 1.5 goals.

Record: 14-14, +7.12

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY

ENGLAND
Manchester United PK -102/Chelsea, 1 unit

ITALY
Juventus -.75 +113/Siena, 3 units
Bologna PK +123/Lecce, 2 units

Man U is simply a number play, as I have them PK -144, enough to play for a unit. Juventus was -1.5 Friday, so I do9n't understand or can find a reason for the move. At -1.5 I wouldn't have played then, but needing only a goal to get a split of the bet, I'm game. Lecce has been on a roll, but played Wednesday, leaving Bologna a little fresher.

Record: Record: 14-17, +2.01